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LNBP (Mexican basketball league) · Wednesday, 7 October, MSK · Gimnasio Multidisciplinario UAT

Correcaminos — Abejas

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Model prediction and result

76:98Came true
Correcaminos35%
Abejas65%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 76:98: the model's most likely outcome, Abejas to win (65% incl. overtime), came true.

Abejas are clear favourites: 65% against 35% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 87:92 — 179 points in total.

Over 178.5 points (incl. overtime) — 49%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Correcaminos −11.7, Abejas −4.7 points in regulation.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Correcaminos — Abejas86.9–92.0
Total over 178.5 (incl. OT)49%
Total under 178.5 (incl. OT)51%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Correcaminos points
  • Abejas points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Correcaminos

  • 03.10Lobos Plateados85:90
  • 02.10Lobos Plateados75:97
  • 27.09away · Gambusinos83:102
  • 26.09away · Gambusinos90:103
  • 22.09Fuerza Regia52:93

Abejas

  • 03.10away · Mineros81:74
  • 02.10away · Mineros78:90
  • 27.09Santos92:78
  • 26.09Santos86:87
  • 22.09Freseros83:89

Head to head

  • 25.07.2026Abejas — Correcaminos101:89
  • 24.07.2026Abejas — Correcaminos95:88
  • 19.07.2025Correcaminos — Abejas86:83
  • 18.07.2025Correcaminos — Abejas90:69
  • 25.08.2024Correcaminos — Abejas78:75

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWLPCTGB
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMineros281513.5366
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsAbejas281216.4299
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSantos281117.39310
13El Calor de Cancun28919.32112
14Correcaminos28424.14317

Season 2026 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next match

  • CorrecaminosAbejas8 October · LNBP
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 89:95. Model's score: —.178.6

LNBP on the same day

  • El Calor de CancunLobos Plateados
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 77:68. Model's score: —.164.9
  • FreserosDorados
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 85:105. Model's score: —.173.8
  • MinerosSantos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 96:75. Model's score: —.174.6
  • AstrosGambusinos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 96:89. Model's score: —.161.2
  • PanterasDiablos Rojos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 77:76. Model's score: —.174.4
  • SolesFuerza Regia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 88:86. Model's score: —.163.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →