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LNBP (Mexican basketball league) · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Gimnasio Multidisciplinario UAT

Correcaminos — Abejas

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Model prediction and result

89:95Came true
Correcaminos32%
Abejas68%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 89:95: the model's most likely outcome, Abejas to win (68% incl. overtime), came true.

Abejas are clear favourites: 68% against 32% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 86:92 — 179 points in total.

Over 177.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Correcaminos −12.2, Abejas −4.2 points in regulation.

Facts

  • Correcaminos: 5 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Correcaminos 2 wins, Abejas 3.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Correcaminos — Abejas86.2–92.3
Total over 177.5 (incl. OT)51%
Total under 177.5 (incl. OT)49%

216 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Correcaminos points
  • Abejas points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Correcaminos

  • 07.10Abejas76:98
  • 03.10Lobos Plateados85:90
  • 02.10Lobos Plateados75:97
  • 27.09away · Gambusinos83:102
  • 26.09away · Gambusinos90:103

Abejas

  • 07.10away · Correcaminos98:76
  • 03.10away · Mineros81:74
  • 02.10away · Mineros78:90
  • 27.09Santos92:78
  • 26.09Santos86:87

Head to head

  • 07.10.2026Correcaminos — Abejas76:98
  • 25.07.2026Abejas — Correcaminos101:89
  • 24.07.2026Abejas — Correcaminos95:88
  • 19.07.2025Correcaminos — Abejas86:83
  • 18.07.2025Correcaminos — Abejas90:69

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWLPCTGB
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMineros281513.5366
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsAbejas281216.4299
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSantos281117.39310
13El Calor de Cancun28919.32112
14Correcaminos28424.14317

Season 2026 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next match

  • AbejasSantos12 October · LNBP
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 82:106. Model's score: —.176.0

LNBP on the same day

  • El Calor de CancunLobos Plateados
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 77:90. Model's score: —.163.7
  • AstrosGambusinos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 86:71. Model's score: —.162.8
  • FreserosDorados
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 77:105. Model's score: —.174.8
  • MinerosSantos
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 82:93. Model's score: —.174.4
  • PanterasDiablos Rojos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 93:92 in overtime. Model's score: —.173.1
  • SolesFuerza Regia
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 75:92. Model's score: —.164.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →