EuroLeague (basketball) · Wednesday, 7 October, 21:45 MSK · Adidas Arena

Paris — Lyon-Villeurbanne

Model prediction and result

96:98Missed

Paris74%

Lyon-Villeurbanne26%

Model estimate at 17:45 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 96:98: the model's most likely outcome, Paris to win (74% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 74% fails in about 26 matches out of 100 on average.

Paris are clear favourites: 74% against 26% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 92:84 — 176 points in total.

Over 175.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

Team strength against the league average: Paris −3.7, Lyon-Villeurbanne −7.7 points in regulation.

Facts

Last 4 meetings: Paris 2 wins, Lyon-Villeurbanne 2.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Paris — Lyon-Villeurbanne		91.9–84.4
Total over 175.5 (incl. OT)		50%
Total under 175.5 (incl. OT)		50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All handicaps
All totals
Paris points
Lyon-Villeurbanne points
Regulation 1X2
Offence and defence strength

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Form

Paris

01.10Zalgiris Kaunas82:78
29.09Partizan Mozzart Bet79:92
24.09away · Panathinaikos72:91
17.04away · Zalgiris Kaunas79:85
09.04Maccabi Tel Aviv113:80

Lyon-Villeurbanne

02.10Valencia92:105
30.09away · Panathinaikos79:102
24.09Maccabi Tel Aviv84:74
16.04Fenerbahce76:81
10.04Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet93:106

Head to head

12.03.2026Paris — Lyon-Villeurbanne90:81
30.12.2025Lyon-Villeurbanne — Paris94:89
30.01.2025Paris — Lyon-Villeurbanne91:82
13.12.2024Lyon-Villeurbanne — Paris98:93

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	L	PCT	GB
13	Zalgiris Kaunas	5	2	3	.400	3
14	Lyon-Villeurbanne	5	2	3	.400	3
15	Anadolu Efes	4	1	3	.250	3.5
16	Paris	4	1	3	.250	3.5
17	Bayern	4	1	3	.250	3.5

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Next matches

21:00
Lyon-VilleurbanneCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet13 October · EuroLeague
3961
2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 82:84. Model's score: —.166.6
21:45
ParisVirtus Bologna14 October · EuroLeague
5842
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —179.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 74% will not happen in roughly 26 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →