Brazilian Serie A: 2026 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 81 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played the remaining 81 matches 10,000 times. Flamengo have the best chance to win the title: 66%, Palmeiras 33%. Closest to the drop: Chapecoense (>99%).
Race for the title
| Date | Flamengo | Palmeiras | Fluminense | Botafogo | Mirassol | São Paulo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 February | 26% | 20% | 7% | 14% | 11% | 2% |
| 9 February | 22% | 29% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 1% |
| 16 February | 24% | 33% | 10% | 6% | 8% | 4% |
| 23 February | 25% | 34% | 10% | 5% | 9% | 3% |
| 2 March | 26% | 36% | 8% | 4% | 9% | 6% |
| 9 March | 27% | 36% | 9% | 5% | 8% | 6% |
| 16 March | 39% | 25% | 14% | 2% | 4% | 9% |
| 23 March | 34% | 42% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 4% |
| 30 March | 33% | 43% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| 6 April | 23% | 48% | 15% | 2% | <1% | 6% |
| 13 April | 36% | 46% | 7% | 1% | <1% | 3% |
| 20 April | 39% | 44% | 8% | 2% | <1% | 2% |
| 27 April | 47% | 42% | 6% | 1% | — | 2% |
| 4 May | 45% | 44% | 6% | <1% | <1% | 2% |
| 11 May | 58% | 36% | 3% | <1% | — | 1% |
| 18 May | 61% | 32% | 4% | <1% | — | 1% |
| 25 May | 38% | 56% | 3% | — | — | <1% |
| 1 June | 42% | 52% | 2% | <1% | — | <1% |
| 8 June | 42% | 53% | 2% | <1% | — | <1% |
| 15 June | 42% | 54% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 22 June | 43% | 52% | 2% | <1% | — | <1% |
| 29 June | 41% | 53% | 2% | <1% | — | <1% |
| 6 July | 41% | 53% | 2% | <1% | — | <1% |
| 13 July | 42% | 53% | 2% | <1% | — | <1% |
| 20 July | 42% | 54% | 2% | <1% | — | <1% |
| 27 July | 45% | 49% | 1% | <1% | — | <1% |
| 3 August | 35% | 61% | 1% | <1% | — | <1% |
| 10 August | 42% | 54% | <1% | <1% | — | <1% |
| 17 August | 61% | 36% | 1% | — | — | — |
| 24 August | 47% | 49% | 1% | <1% | — | — |
| 31 August | 56% | 41% | 1% | — | — | — |
| 7 September | 68% | 31% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 14 September | 69% | 31% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 21 September | 77% | 22% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 28 September | 78% | 22% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 5 October | 77% | 22% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 12 October | 67% | 33% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 14 October | 66% | 33% | <1% | — | — | — |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “CONMEBOL cups” counts “Libertadores” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | Libertadores | CONMEBOL cups | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 64 (30) | 80 | 14 | 66%▼11 | >99% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 63 (30) | 77 | 13 | 33%▲11 | >99% | >99% | — |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 53 (30) | 65 | 7 | <1% | 89%▲6 | >99% | — |
| 4 | Fluminense | 51 (30) | 64 | 18 | <1% | 85%▲5 | >99% | — |
| 5 | Bahia | 49 (30) | 61 | 6 | — | 51% | >99%▲1 | — |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 48 (30) | 60 | 15 | — | 44%▼1 | >99%▲1 | — |
| 7 | Atlético-MG | 47 (30) | 58 | 4 | — | 25%▲3 | 99%▲4 | — |
| 8 | Santos | 42 (30) | 53 | 11 | — | 4%▼6 | 89%▲1 | <1% |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 40 (30) | 52 | 17 | — | 2%▼1 | 84%▲12 | <1%▼1 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 39 (30) | 50 | 9 | — | <1%▼2 | 67%▲5 | 1%▼1 |
| 11 | Vasco da Gama | 35 (29) | 48 | 5 | — | <1% | 41%▲10 | 7%▼6 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 36 (30) | 48 | 19 | — | <1%▼2 | 42%▼16 | 5%▲2 |
| 13 | Coritiba | 39 (30) | 47 | 2 | — | <1% | 30%▼7 | 7%▲1 |
| 14 | Vitória | 36 (30) | 45 | 10 | — | — | 16%▲4 | 20%▼9 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 33 (30) | 44 | 16 | — | — | 11%▼6 | 27%▲5 |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 (30) | 43 | 12 | — | — | 11%▲3 | 31%▼9 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 32 (30) | 43 | 20 | — | — | 9%▼9 | 33%▲13 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 31 (30) | 40 | 3 | — | — | 1%▼1 | 70%▲2 |
| 19 | Remo | 25 (30) | 33 | 8 | — | — | <1% | 98%▲1 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 18 (29) | 26 | 1 | — | — | — | >99% |
Chance of every place
Show the 20 × 20 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 66 | 33 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Palmeiras | 33 | 65 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Athletico Paranaense | 1 | 41 | 30 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Fluminense | 1 | 36 | 29 | 19 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Bahia | 10 | 17 | 25 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Cruzeiro | 8 | 15 | 21 | 25 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Atlético-MG | 3 | 8 | 15 | 21 | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Santos | 1 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 23 | 19 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| RB Bragantino | 1 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 20 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| São Paulo | 2 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 18 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Vasco da Gama | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||||||
| Botafogo | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||||||||
| Coritiba | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||||||||
| Vitória | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 7 | 1 | ||||||||
| Mirassol | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 2 | ||||||||
| Internacional | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 12 | 1 | |||||||||
| Corinthians | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 13 | 3 | |||||||||
| Grêmio | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 20 | 39 | 10 | |||||||||||
| Remo | 1 | 3 | 12 | 76 | 8 | |||||||||||||||
| Chapecoense | 7 | 92 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Brasileirao: matches and table →
Brasileirao: power rankings →