Bundesliga: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 261 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played the remaining 261 matches 10,000 times. Bayern München have the best chance to win the title: 71%, Borussia Dortmund 14%. Closest to the drop: Borussia Mönchengladbach (41%).
Race for the title
| Date | Bayern München | Borussia Dortmund | Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig | VfB Stuttgart | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 August | 56% | 13% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 2% |
| 7 September | 62% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
| 14 September | 68% | 14% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 4% |
| 21 September | 71% | 17% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| 28 September | 71% | 16% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| 5 October | 71% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| 12 October | 71% | 13% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 3% |
| 14 October | 71% | 14% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 3% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Europe” counts “UCL” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | UCL | Europe | Play-out | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 11 (5) | 79 | 17 | 71% | 97%▼1 | 99%▼1 | — | — |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 13 (5) | 67 | 10 | 14%▼3 | 76%▼5 | 91%▼1 | <1% | <1% |
| 3 | Bayer Leverkusen | 10 (5) | 62 | 16 | 6%▲1 | 60%▲6 | 81%▲5 | <1% | <1% |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 (5) | 59 | 5 | 4%▲2 | 46%▲13 | 70%▲15 | <1%▼1 | <1%▼1 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 13 (5) | 58 | 2 | 3%▲1 | 40% | 64%▲1 | <1%▼1 | <1% |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 6 (5) | 54 | 18 | 1% | 30%▲5 | 54%▲9 | 1%▼1 | 1%▼1 |
| 7 | Mainz 05 | 7 (5) | 48 | 3 | <1%▼1 | 13%▼3 | 30%▼4 | 3% | 4%▲2 |
| 8 | Augsburg | 8 (5) | 47 | 13 | <1% | 10%▼1 | 25%▼1 | 4% | 5% |
| 9 | Werder Bremen | 8 (5) | 45 | 15 | <1% | 6%▲1 | 18%▲4 | 5%▼1 | 6%▼3 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 (5) | 42 | 9 | <1% | 5%▼4 | 14%▼9 | 7%▲2 | 10%▲3 |
| 11 | Hoffenheim | 3 (5) | 42 | 4 | <1% | 5%▼5 | 14%▼10 | 7%▲2 | 11%▲5 |
| 12 | Elversberg | 7 (5) | 42 | 12 | <1% | 4%▼4 | 12%▼7 | 7%▲1 | 10%▲3 |
| 13 | 1. FC Köln | 7 (5) | 40 | 1 | <1% | 3% | 10%▲1 | 9%▼1 | 14%▼3 |
| 14 | Schalke 04 | 5 (5) | 39 | 14 | <1% | 2%▼1 | 7%▼2 | 9%▼1 | 16% |
| 15 | Hamburger SV | 6 (5) | 38 | 11 | <1% | 2%▲1 | 6%▲3 | 10%▼2 | 19%▼15 |
| 16 | Paderborn | 4 (5) | 35 | 7 | — | 1%▼1 | 3%▼3 | 12%▲1 | 27%▲8 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 (5) | 34 | 8 | <1% | 1%▲1 | 3%▲2 | 12%▼2 | 34%▼6 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0 (5) | 32 | 6 | — | 1% | 2%▼1 | 12%▼1 | 41%▲5 |
Chance of every place
Show the 18 × 18 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 71 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Borussia Dortmund | 14 | 29 | 20 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| RB Leipzig | 4 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Freiburg | 3 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mainz 05 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Augsburg | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Werder Bremen | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | |
| Hoffenheim | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | |
| Elversberg | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | ||
| 1. FC Köln | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 6 | ||
| Schalke 04 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | ||
| Hamburger SV | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | |||
| Paderborn | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | ||||
| Union Berlin | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 19 | ||||
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 25 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.