UEFA Conference League: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 108 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played the remaining 108 matches 10,000 times. Pafos FC have the best chance to top the league phase: 5%, Panathinaikos 5%. Most likely to go straight to the round of 16: Pafos FC (33%).
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Knockouts” counts “Last 16” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st | Last 16 | Knockouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pafos FC | 0 (0) | 10 | 33 | 5% | 33% | 78% |
| 2 | Panathinaikos | 0 (0) | 10 | 22 | 5% | 33% | 77% |
| 3 | Lugano | 0 (0) | 10 | 23 | 5% | 33% | 78% |
| 4 | FC København | 0 (0) | 9 | 13 | 4% | 30% | 76% |
| 5 | Universitatea Craiova | 0 (0) | 9 | 21 | 3% | 29% | 77% |
| 6 | Borac Banja Luka | 0 (0) | 9 | 2 | 4% | 29% | 74% |
| 7 | KuPS | 0 (0) | 9 | 25 | 3% | 24% | 76% |
| 8 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 0 (0) | 9 | 36 | 3% | 25% | 72% |
| 9 | Thun | 0 (0) | 8 | 35 | 3% | 23% | 67% |
| 10 | AGF | 0 (0) | 8 | 32 | 3% | 22% | 66% |
| 11 | Brann | 0 (0) | 8 | 31 | 3% | 21% | 66% |
| 12 | Monaco | 0 (0) | 8 | 30 | 3% | 22% | 67% |
| 13 | Ajax | 0 (0) | 8 | 34 | 3% | 22% | 66% |
| 14 | Hajduk Split | 0 (0) | 8 | 29 | 3% | 22% | 66% |
| 15 | Trabzonspor | 0 (0) | 8 | 27 | 2% | 21% | 65% |
| 16 | Gent | 0 (0) | 8 | 28 | 3% | 20% | 65% |
| 17 | Egnatia | 0 (0) | 8 | 26 | 3% | 21% | 65% |
| 18 | St.Truiden | 0 (0) | 8 | 17 | 2% | 21% | 64% |
| 19 | Jablonec | 0 (0) | 8 | 19 | 2% | 21% | 64% |
| 20 | FK Kauno Žalgiris | 0 (0) | 8 | 18 | 2% | 20% | 64% |
| 21 | Iberia 1999 | 0 (0) | 8 | 24 | 2% | 20% | 64% |
| 22 | FC Twente | 0 (0) | 8 | 15 | 2% | 21% | 65% |
| 23 | Freiburg | 0 (0) | 8 | 20 | 3% | 20% | 64% |
| 24 | FC Midtjylland | 0 (0) | 8 | 16 | 2% | 20% | 64% |
| 25 | Braga | 0 (0) | 8 | 9 | 2% | 19% | 63% |
| 26 | Atalanta | 0 (0) | 8 | 5 | 2% | 19% | 63% |
| 27 | Nordsjælland | 0 (0) | 8 | 4 | 2% | 19% | 62% |
| 28 | Mjällby | 0 (0) | 8 | 3 | 2% | 19% | 62% |
| 29 | Kairat Almaty | 0 (0) | 8 | 10 | 2% | 19% | 62% |
| 30 | CSKA Sofia | 0 (0) | 8 | 14 | 2% | 18% | 63% |
| 31 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 0 (0) | 8 | 11 | 2% | 19% | 62% |
| 32 | Heart of Midlothian | 0 (0) | 8 | 6 | 2% | 19% | 63% |
| 33 | Getafe | 0 (0) | 8 | 12 | 2% | 19% | 62% |
| 34 | Riga FC | 0 (0) | 8 | 8 | 2% | 19% | 63% |
| 35 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0 (0) | 8 | 7 | 3% | 19% | 63% |
| 36 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 0 (0) | 8 | 1 | 2% | 19% | 61% |
Chance of every place
Show the 36 × 36 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pafos FC | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Panathinaikos | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Lugano | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| FC København | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Universitatea Craiova | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Borac Banja Luka | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| KuPS | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Thun | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| AGF | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Brann | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Monaco | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Ajax | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Hajduk Split | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Trabzonspor | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Gent | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Egnatia | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| St.Truiden | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Jablonec | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| FK Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Iberia 1999 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| FC Twente | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Freiburg | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| FC Midtjylland | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Braga | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Atalanta | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Nordsjælland | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Mjällby | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Kairat Almaty | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| CSKA Sofia | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Heart of Midlothian | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Getafe | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Riga FC | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.