Polish Ekstraklasa: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 218 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played the remaining 218 matches 10,000 times. Lech Poznań have the best chance to win the title: 48%, Górnik Zabrze 28%. Closest to the drop: Raków Częstochowa (64%).
Race for the title
| Date | Lech Poznań | Legia Warszawa | Górnik Zabrze | Jagiellonia Białystok | Raków Częstochowa | GKS Katowice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 July | 15% | 13% | 9% | 14% | 9% | 4% |
| 3 August | 17% | 21% | 10% | 12% | 7% | 6% |
| 10 August | 23% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 7% | 7% |
| 17 August | 23% | 30% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 3% |
| 24 August | 26% | 26% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 6% |
| 31 August | 35% | 18% | 8% | 16% | 1% | 8% |
| 7 September | 47% | 19% | 13% | 8% | <1% | 3% |
| 14 September | 37% | 17% | 23% | 5% | <1% | 3% |
| 21 September | 45% | 16% | 23% | 3% | — | 3% |
| 28 September | 45% | 16% | 24% | 3% | <1% | 2% |
| 5 October | 44% | 16% | 25% | 2% | <1% | 3% |
| 12 October | 47% | 15% | 28% | 1% | — | 3% |
| 14 October | 48% | 15% | 28% | 1% | — | 2% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Europe” counts “UCL incl. qual.” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | UCL incl. qual. | Europe | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznań | 22 (9) | 71 | 14 | 48%▲4 | 72%▲6 | 92%▲5 | <1% |
| 2 | Górnik Zabrze | 25 (10) | 67 | 17 | 28%▲3 | 58%▲9 | 86%▲8 | <1% |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 22 (10) | 63 | 10 | 15%▼1 | 35% | 72%▲6 | <1% |
| 4 | Pogoń Szczecin | 18 (9) | 56 | 3 | 4% | 13% | 42%▲7 | 1%▼1 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 18 (10) | 53 | 2 | 2%▼1 | 8% | 30%▲7 | 1%▼3 |
| 6 | Wisła Kraków | 17 (10) | 52 | 15 | 1%▼2 | 6%▼4 | 24%▼7 | 2% |
| 7 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 12 (9) | 48 | 18 | 1%▼1 | 3%▼5 | 15%▼10 | 6%▲2 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 15 (10) | 47 | 12 | <1%▼1 | 2%▼2 | 11%▼5 | 6%▲2 |
| 9 | Piast Gliwice | 16 (10) | 46 | 11 | <1% | 1% | 8%▲2 | 8%▼6 |
| 10 | Zagłębie Lubin | 15 (10) | 46 | 1 | <1%▼1 | 1%▼2 | 7%▼7 | 7%▲3 |
| 11 | Cracovia | 11 (10) | 43 | 9 | <1% | 1%▲1 | 5%▲3 | 13%▼12 |
| 12 | Widzew Łódź | 9 (10) | 41 | 4 | <1% | <1%▼1 | 2%▼3 | 19%▲4 |
| 13 | Motor Lublin | 9 (10) | 40 | 8 | <1% | <1% | 2%▲1 | 23%▼11 |
| 14 | Wisła Płock | 11 (9) | 40 | 5 | <1% | <1%▼1 | 2%▼3 | 25%▲9 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Kraków | 8 (10) | 38 | 13 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 31%▼15 |
| 16 | Śląsk Wrocław | 6 (10) | 36 | 16 | <1% | <1% | 1%▼1 | 39%▲7 |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 8 (10) | 33 | 7 | <1% | <1% | <1%▼1 | 56%▲8 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 3 (10) | 31 | 6 | — | — | <1% | 64%▲12 |
Chance of every place
Show the 18 × 18 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznań | 48 | 25 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Górnik Zabrze | 28 | 30 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Legia Warszawa | 15 | 20 | 22 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Pogoń Szczecin | 4 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| GKS Katowice | 2 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Wisła Kraków | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Jagiellonia Białystok | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Korona Kielce | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Piast Gliwice | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Zagłębie Lubin | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cracovia | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| Widzew Łódź | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 4 | ||
| Motor Lublin | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | ||
| Wisła Płock | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 6 | ||
| Wieczysta Kraków | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | |||
| Śląsk Wrocław | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 13 | |||
| Radomiak Radom | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 23 | |||||
| Raków Częstochowa | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 19 | 32 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Ekstraklasa: matches and table →
Ekstraklasa: power rankings →