Chilean Liga de Primera: 2026 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 49 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played the remaining 49 matches 10,000 times. Colo Colo have the best chance to win the title: 96%, Universidad de Chile 2%. Closest to the drop: Unión La Calera (98%).
Race for the title
| Date | Colo Colo | Deportes Limache | Universidad Católica | Coquimbo Unido | Audax Italiano | Universidad de Chile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 February | 5% | 7% | 14% | 17% | 11% | 11% |
| 9 February | 8% | 8% | 18% | 19% | 17% | 8% |
| 16 February | 4% | 7% | 9% | 28% | 9% | 7% |
| 23 February | 9% | 12% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 4% |
| 2 March | 7% | 25% | 30% | 6% | 2% | 10% |
| 9 March | 12% | 17% | 23% | 14% | 1% | 12% |
| 16 March | 16% | 38% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 12% |
| 23 March | 21% | 35% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 12% |
| 30 March | 22% | 34% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 12% |
| 6 April | 22% | 38% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 16% |
| 13 April | 24% | 27% | 25% | 5% | <1% | 10% |
| 20 April | 12% | 36% | 28% | 3% | <1% | 9% |
| 27 April | 23% | 36% | 9% | 5% | <1% | 13% |
| 4 May | 31% | 35% | 8% | 2% | <1% | 12% |
| 11 May | 31% | 36% | 8% | 2% | <1% | 11% |
| 18 May | 47% | 17% | 16% | 4% | — | 6% |
| 25 May | 72% | 6% | 7% | 3% | <1% | 6% |
| 1 June | 79% | 2% | 10% | 5% | <1% | 4% |
| 8 June | 79% | 1% | 10% | 5% | <1% | 3% |
| 15 June | 83% | <1% | 12% | 2% | — | 1% |
| 22 June | 83% | <1% | 11% | 2% | — | 2% |
| 29 June | 84% | <1% | 10% | 2% | — | 3% |
| 6 July | 83% | 1% | 11% | 2% | — | 2% |
| 13 July | 82% | <1% | 12% | 2% | <1% | 2% |
| 20 July | 83% | <1% | 11% | 2% | <1% | 2% |
| 27 July | 90% | <1% | 4% | 2% | — | 3% |
| 3 August | 95% | <1% | 1% | — | — | 3% |
| 10 August | 96% | <1% | 1% | <1% | — | 3% |
| 17 August | 91% | <1% | 1% | <1% | — | 7% |
| 24 August | 98% | <1% | <1% | <1% | — | 1% |
| 31 August | >99% | — | <1% | — | — | <1% |
| 7 September | 99% | — | <1% | — | — | <1% |
| 14 September | 98% | — | 1% | — | — | — |
| 21 September | 99% | — | 1% | — | — | 1% |
| 28 September | 98% | — | 1% | — | — | 1% |
| 5 October | 99% | — | 1% | — | — | <1% |
| 12 October | 97% | — | 2% | — | — | 1% |
| 14 October | 96% | — | 2% | — | — | 2% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 54 (24) | 66 | 13 | 96%▼3 | — |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 45 (24) | 57 | 12 | 2%▲2 | — |
| 3 | Universidad Católica | 42 (23) | 55 | 8 | 2%▲1 | — |
| 4 | Everton CD | 39 (24) | 47 | 2 | — | — |
| 5 | Palestino | 37 (24) | 46 | 7 | — | — |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 34 (24) | 44 | 9 | — | — |
| 7 | Huachipato | 34 (24) | 43 | 14 | — | — |
| 8 | Coquimbo Unido | 32 (24) | 42 | 15 | — | — |
| 9 | Ñublense | 32 (24) | 40 | 11 | — | <1% |
| 10 | Deportes Concepción | 32 (24) | 38 | 1 | — | <1% |
| 11 | La Serena | 30 (24) | 37 | 6 | — | 1%▲1 |
| 12 | Audax Italiano | 28 (23) | 36 | 4 | — | 2% |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 27 (24) | 35 | 16 | — | 5%▲2 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 25 (24) | 31 | 3 | — | 23%▲5 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepción | 23 (24) | 29 | 10 | — | 71%▼7 |
| 16 | Unión La Calera | 18 (24) | 23 | 5 | — | 98% |
Chance of every place
Show the 16 × 16 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colo Colo | 96 | 4 | ||||||||||||||
| Universidad de Chile | 2 | 64 | 30 | 3 | ||||||||||||
| Universidad Católica | 2 | 31 | 57 | 8 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Everton CD | 1 | 8 | 43 | 23 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||
| Palestino | 3 | 26 | 27 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Deportes Limache | 1 | 10 | 20 | 22 | 18 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Huachipato | 4 | 11 | 17 | 20 | 18 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||||
| Coquimbo Unido | 4 | 11 | 15 | 18 | 20 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Ñublense | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 11 | 7 | 2 | |||||
| Deportes Concepción | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 18 | 14 | 8 | 1 | |||||
| La Serena | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 14 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 6 | 1 | |||||
| Audax Italiano | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 10 | 2 | |||||
| O'Higgins | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 21 | 24 | 16 | 5 | |||||||
| Cobresal | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 42 | 22 | 1 | ||||||||
| Universidad de Concepción | 1 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 59 | 12 | ||||||||||
| Unión La Calera | 1 | 12 | 87 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Chilean Primera: matches and table →
Chilean Primera: power rankings →