Turkish Cup, round 3 · Tuesday, 27 October, MSK

Adana Adaletgucu SF — Ankaragücü

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Model prediction for 27 October

Adana Adaletgucu SF11%
Draw18%
Ankaragücü70%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Ankaragücü are clear favourites: 70% against 11% for the opponent, draw 18%.

3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Ankaragücü are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Adana Adaletgucu SF — Ankaragücü What is xG?0.8–2.3
Adana Adaletgucu SF not to lose30%
Ankaragücü not to lose89%
No draw82%
Both teams to score: yes51%
Both teams to score: no49%
Total over 2.560%
Total under 2.540%

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Form

Adana Adaletgucu SF

No past matches in the data yet.

Ankaragücü

  • 26.02Alanyaspor1:1
  • 05.02away · Rizespor1:2
  • 07.01Iskenderun FK1:1
  • 18.12away · Menemen3:2
  • 04.12away · Karşıyaka2:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Turkish Cup on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 70% will not happen in roughly 30 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →