Super League Greece, round 8 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
AEK Athens — Panetolikos
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
AEK Athens are clear favourites: 87% against 3% for the opponent, draw 10%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 38%.
Why
- By the strength ratings AEK Athens are about 1.7 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: AEK Athens — No. 2, 14 pts; Panetolikos — No. 8, 9 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- AEK Athens: unbeaten in 5; Panetolikos: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: AEK Athens 3 wins, Panetolikos 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: AEK Athens — Panetolikos What is xG? | 2.6–0.5 | |
| AEK Athens not to lose | 97% | |
| Panetolikos not to lose | 13% | |
| No draw | 90% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 38% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 62% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap AEK Athens
- AEK Athens goals
- Panetolikos goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10OFI Crete3:0
- 20.09away · NFC Volos2:1
- 13.09away · Asteras Tripolis1:1
- 08.09LASK1:0
- 05.09Aris Thessaloniki5:0
- 11.10away · Kifisia FC0:2
- 20.09PAOK Thessaloniki1:3
- 13.09away · Panathinaikos0:3
- 06.09away · Levadiakos2:0
- 29.08Kalamata2:0
Head to head
- 14.12.2025Panetolikos — AEK Athens0:5
- 02.11.2025AEK Athens — Panetolikos1:0
- 25.01.2025AEK Athens — Panetolikos1:0
- 05.10.2024Panetolikos — AEK Athens1:0
- 18.12.2023Panetolikos — AEK Athens2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 6 | 5 | +9 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Athens | 6 | 4 | +13 | 14 |
| 3 | Olympiacos | 6 | 4 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Iraklis | 6 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Panetolikos | 6 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Kifisia FC | 6 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
Greek Super League on the same day
- IraklisKifisia FCpreliminary393327XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.3
- Asteras TripolisLevadiakospreliminary4431251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 87% will not happen in roughly 13 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →