Kazakhstan Premier League, round 29 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Aktobe — Kairat Almaty
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Kairat Almaty are clear favourites: 48% against 24% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Kairat Almaty are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Aktobe — Kairat Almaty What is xG? | 1.1–1.6 | |
| Aktobe not to lose | 52% | |
| Kairat Almaty not to lose | 76% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Aktobe
- Aktobe goals
- Kairat Almaty goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · FC Yelimay3:1
- 18.09Ulytau2:2
- 12.09away · Kaspiy Aktau2:1
- 05.09Zhenis1:0
- 30.08away · Irtysh Pavlodar1:2
- 10.10Zhetysu Taldykorgan1:0
- 17.09away · FC Astana0:1
- 13.09Tobol Kostanay1:4
- 09.09Zhenis3:0
- 05.09away · Kaspiy Aktau3:0
Head to head
- 16.03.2026Kairat Almaty — Aktobe1:0
- 14.09.2025Kairat Almaty — Aktobe1:0
- 30.05.2025Aktobe — Kairat Almaty1:2
- 04.10.2024Aktobe — Kairat Almaty2:1
- 20.04.2024Kairat Almaty — Aktobe1:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy Shymkent | 27 | 20 | +36 | 64 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 27 | 18 | +32 | 60 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 26 | 14 | +16 | 48 |
| 4 | Aktobe | 27 | 13 | +9 | 45 |
| 5 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 27 | 13 | +4 | 45 |
Kazakhstan Premier League on the same day
- FC Altai OskemenFC Yelimaypreliminary3028422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- AtyrauIrtysh Pavlodarpreliminary4331261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.9
- FC AstanaKaisar Kyzylordapreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →