Saudi Pro League, round 11 · Friday, 23 October, MSK
Al Qadsiah — Al Hilal
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Al Hilal are slightly stronger: 43% against 28%, draw 29%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.
Over 2.5 goals — 69%, both teams to score — 72%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Al Hilal are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Al Qadsiah — Al Hilal What is xG? | 1.6–1.9 | |
| Al Qadsiah not to lose | 57% | |
| Al Hilal not to lose | 72% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 28% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 69% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 31% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Al Qadsiah
- Al Qadsiah goals
- Al Hilal goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10away · Al Kholood5:0
- 11.09Al-Ettifaq3:3
- 08.09Al Ahli3:2
- 03.09away · Al Diriyah2:0
- 30.08Al-Faisaly3:1
- 10.10Al Ittihad3:2
- 12.09away · Al-Taawoun6:0
- 07.09Neom SC0:2
- 04.09away · Al Shabab2:0
- 01.09Al Ahli3:0
Head to head
- 29.01.2026Al Qadsiah — Al Hilal2:2
- 13.09.2025Al Hilal — Al Qadsiah2:2
- 26.05.2025Al Hilal — Al Qadsiah2:0
- 27.01.2025Al Qadsiah — Al Hilal2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 8 | 7 | +19 | 21 |
| 2 | Al Qadsiah | 8 | 6 | +13 | 19 |
| 3 | Al Nassr FC | 8 | 6 | +12 | 19 |
Saudi Pro League on the same day
- Al-FaisalyAl Nassr FCpreliminary919732The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.0
- Al IttihadAl Diriyahpreliminary4929231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →