Peruvian Liga 1 · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK
Alianza Atlético — Deportivo Garcilaso
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 28 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Alianza Atlético are slightly stronger: 44% against 28%, draw 29%.
The model expects few goals: 2.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Alianza Atlético — Deportivo Garcilaso What is xG? | 1.3–1.0 | |
| Alianza Atlético not to lose | 72% | |
| Deportivo Garcilaso not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 40% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 60% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Alianza Atlético
- Alianza Atlético goals
- Deportivo Garcilaso goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Sport Boys3:1
- 18.09Comerciantes Unidos2:1
- 13.09away · Atlético Grau1:3
- 04.09CD UT Cajamarca3:2
- 30.08away · Club Deportivo Moquegua4:1
- 10.10Sport Huancayo0:1
- 20.09Universitario de Deportes4:0
- 13.09away · Sport Boys0:1
- 06.09Atlético Grau4:2
- 30.08away · Alianza Lima1:0
Head to head
- 11.05.2026Deportivo Garcilaso — Alianza Atlético2:1
- 04.03.2026Alianza Atlético — Deportivo Garcilaso2:0
- 06.10.2025Deportivo Garcilaso — Alianza Atlético2:4
- 16.05.2025Alianza Atlético — Deportivo Garcilaso1:0
- 10.08.2024Deportivo Garcilaso — Alianza Atlético0:1
Peruvian Liga 1 on the same day
- 5526191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.1
- FC CajamarcaCD UT Cajamarcapreliminary6321161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →