Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau
Alianza FC — Águilas Doradas
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2:2Came true
In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (30%), came true.
Evenly matched: Alianza FC 36%, Águilas Doradas 34%, draw 30%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Alianza FC — Águilas Doradas What is xG? | 1.3–1.2 | |
| Alianza FC not to lose | 66% | |
| Águilas Doradas not to lose | 64% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Alianza FC
- Alianza FC goals
- Águilas Doradas goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 03.10away · Deportivo Cali1:3
- 28.09away · CD Jaguares2:1
- 20.09Santa Fe1:4
- 16.09away · Chicó FC2:1
- 13.09Junior FC1:0
- 03.10CD Jaguares2:0
- 28.09away · Deportivo Cali0:2
- 24.09away · América de Cali0:1
- 19.09Deportivo Pereira2:2
- 14.09away · Atlético Nacional0:2
Head to head
- 28.03.2026Águilas Doradas — Alianza FC1:0
- 19.10.2025Águilas Doradas — Alianza FC1:0
- 27.04.2025Alianza FC — Águilas Doradas0:0
- 07.11.2024Alianza FC — Águilas Doradas3:0
- 18.04.2024Águilas Doradas — Alianza FC4:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Once Caldas | 13 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 13 | 3 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Llaneros FC | 13 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 14 | Chicó FC | 12 | 3 | -9 | 12 |
| 15 | Alianza FC | 13 | 3 | -12 | 12 |
| 16 | Fortaleza FC | 13 | 1 | -5 | 11 |
Next matches
- BucaramangaÁguilas Doradas14 October · Colombian Primera A4629251The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- Deportivo PastoAlianza FC20 October · Colombian Primera A5028221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
Colombian Primera A on the same day
- 5427191The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.5
- 2729442The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →