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Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 8 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca — Estrela da Amadora

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Model prediction and result

1:0Came true
Arouca45%
Draw29%
Estrela da Amadora26%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Arouca to win (45%), came true.

Arouca are slightly stronger: 45% against 26%, draw 29%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 59%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Arouca are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Arouca — Estrela da Amadora What is xG?1.6–1.2
Arouca not to lose74%
Estrela da Amadora not to lose55%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes59%
Both teams to score: no41%
Total over 2.553%
Total under 2.547%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Arouca
  • Arouca goals
  • Estrela da Amadora goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Arouca

  • 19.09away · Sporting CP2:2
  • 13.09Santa Clara1:2
  • 07.09away · Estoril0:0
  • 29.08Marítimo2:1
  • 23.08away · FC Porto0:2

Estrela da Amadora

  • 20.09Académico Viseu0:2
  • 14.09away · Rio Ave3:3
  • 10.09Braga2:1
  • 05.09Famalicão2:2
  • 30.08away · Nacional3:2

Head to head

  • 19.04.2026Arouca — Estrela da Amadora1:0
  • 07.12.2025Estrela da Amadora — Arouca3:1
  • 19.04.2025Arouca — Estrela da Amadora1:0
  • 09.12.2024Estrela da Amadora — Arouca2:1
  • 05.05.2024Arouca — Estrela da Amadora0:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
4, Europa League or Conference LeagueSanta Clara853012–4+818
5, Europa League or Conference LeagueArouca842211–7+414
6Académico Viseu842211–10+114
9Braga73228–8011
10Estrela da Amadora824214–15-110
11Marítimo82249–14-58

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • FazendenseEstrela da Amadora17 October · Taca de Portugal
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
  • CF Os BelenensesArouca18 October · Taca de Portugal
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1

Primeira Liga on the same day

  • Rio AveNacional
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
  • BenficaVitória de Guimarães
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →