Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 8 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz)
Benfica — Vitória de Guimarães
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2:0Came true
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Benfica to win (78%), came true.
Benfica are clear favourites: 78% against 7% for the opponent, draw 15%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Benfica are about 1.7 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Vitória de Guimarães: winless in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Benfica 4 wins, Vitória de Guimarães 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Benfica — Vitória de Guimarães What is xG? | 2.4–0.8 | |
| Benfica not to lose | 93% | |
| Vitória de Guimarães not to lose | 22% | |
| No draw | 85% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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- Handicap Benfica
- Benfica goals
- Vitória de Guimarães goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 20.09away · FC Porto1:3
- 16.09away · Milan2:0
- 13.09Gil Vicente3:1
- 09.09away · Moreirense4:0
- 05.09away · Marítimo3:0
- 20.09Moreirense1:1
- 12.09away · Académico Viseu1:2
- 06.09Casa Pia AC0:0
- 31.08away · Braga0:1
- 23.08Nacional1:0
Head to head
- 21.03.2026Benfica — Vitória de Guimarães3:0
- 01.11.2025Vitória de Guimarães — Benfica0:3
- 19.04.2025Vitória de Guimarães — Benfica0:3
- 07.12.2024Benfica — Vitória de Guimarães1:0
- 11.02.2024Vitória de Guimarães — Benfica2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | +16 | 24 |
| 2, Champions League | Benfica | 8 | 6 | +17 | 19 |
| 3, Champions League qualifying | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | +11 | 18 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória de Guimarães | 8 | 1 | -5 | 5 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Nacional | 8 | 1 | -9 | 4 |
Next matches
- BenficaCeltic15 October · Europa League6819131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- ACDR LamelasVitória de Guimarães17 October · Taca de Portugal1320662The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.0
Primeira Liga on the same day
- 4031301The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 4529261The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 78% will not happen in roughly 22 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →