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UEFA Champions League, round 2 · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · Emirates Stadium

Arsenal — Lille

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Model prediction and result

3:0Came true
Arsenal80%
Draw14%
Lille7%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:0: the model's most likely outcome, Arsenal to win (80%), came true.

Arsenal are clear favourites: 80% against 7% for the opponent, draw 14%.

3.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 67%, both teams to score — 48%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Arsenal are about 1.4 goals per match stronger.
  • Arsenal: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Arsenal — Lille What is xG?2.7–0.7
Arsenal not to lose93%
Lille not to lose20%
No draw86%
Both teams to score: yes48%
Both teams to score: no52%
Total over 2.567%
Total under 2.533%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Arsenal
  • Arsenal goals
  • Lille goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Arsenal

  • 10.10Leeds United2:1
  • 19.09away · Brighton & Hove Albion0:3
  • 15.09away · Ipswich Town4:2
  • 12.09away · Sunderland2:0
  • 09.09away · Napoli1:0

Lille

  • 10.10Le Havre1:0
  • 20.09away · Nice1:2
  • 13.09Troyes2:0
  • 08.09Real Betis2:3
  • 03.09away · Toulouse1:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
2, Straight to the round of 16Sporting CP22005–1+46
3, Straight to the round of 16Arsenal22004–0+46
4, Straight to the round of 16Bayern München21108–3+54
31Napoli20021–4-30
32Lille20022–6-40
33Feyenoord10011–5-40

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • LilleBrest17 October · Ligue 1
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
  • Nottingham ForestArsenal18 October · Premier League
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4

Champions League on the same day

  • LensSporting CP
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
  • Sabah FKSlavia Prague
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
  • InterClub Brugge
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 3:4. Model's score: 3:1.3.0
  • Atlético MadridManchester United
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
  • RB LeipzigPSV Eindhoven
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
  • VillarrealNapoli
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
  • GalatasarayBarcelona
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:4. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
  • VikingBayern München
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 3:3. Model's score: 0:3.3.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 80% will not happen in roughly 20 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →