English Premier League, round 7 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Nottingham Forest — Arsenal
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Arsenal are clear favourites: 58% against 16% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Arsenal are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Nottingham Forest — No. 15, 5 pts; Arsenal — No. 2, 15 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Nottingham Forest 0 wins, Arsenal 3, 2 draws.
- Days of rest before the match: Nottingham Forest 7, Arsenal 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Nottingham Forest — Arsenal What is xG? | 0.9–1.8 | |
| Nottingham Forest not to lose | 42% | |
| Arsenal not to lose | 84% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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- Handicap Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest goals
- Arsenal goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 11.10away · Crystal Palace1:3
- 19.09Coventry City0:1
- 12.09away · Aston Villa2:1
- 05.09Tottenham Hotspur0:0
- 29.08away · Liverpool2:2
- 13.10Lille3:0
- 10.10Leeds United2:1
- 19.09away · Brighton & Hove Albion0:3
- 15.09away · Ipswich Town4:2
- 12.09away · Sunderland2:0
Head to head
- 17.01.2026Nottingham Forest — Arsenal0:0
- 13.09.2025Arsenal — Nottingham Forest3:0
- 26.02.2025Nottingham Forest — Arsenal0:0
- 23.11.2024Arsenal — Nottingham Forest3:0
- 30.01.2024Nottingham Forest — Arsenal1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 2, Champions League | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | +5 | 15 |
| 3, Champions League | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 4 | +13 | 13 |
| 14 | Coventry City | 6 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | -5 | 5 |
Premier League on the same day
- 4728251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 5527181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- 373033XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 2:23.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →