Peruvian Liga 1 · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK
Asociación Deportiva Tarma — Club Deportivo Moquegua
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 28 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Asociación Deportiva Tarma are clear favourites: 55% against 19% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects few goals: 2.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 40%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Asociación Deportiva Tarma are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Asociación Deportiva Tarma — Club Deportivo Moquegua What is xG? | 1.4–0.7 | |
| Asociación Deportiva Tarma not to lose | 81% | |
| Club Deportivo Moquegua not to lose | 45% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 40% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 60% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 36% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 64% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Asociación Deportiva Tarma
- Asociación Deportiva Tarma goals
- Club Deportivo Moquegua goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10FC Cajamarca0:0
- 23.09Cienciano2:1
- 19.09away · Alianza Lima0:2
- 07.09away · FBC Melgar0:3
- 30.08Sport Huancayo1:3
- 08.10Cienciano0:2
- 20.09away · ADC Juan Pablo II0:4
- 13.09Sporting Cristal1:2
- 06.09away · Cusco FC0:2
- 30.08Alianza Atlético1:4
Head to head
- 09.05.2026Club Deportivo Moquegua — Asociación Deportiva Tarma2:2
Peruvian Liga 1 on the same day
- FC CajamarcaCD UT Cajamarcapreliminary6321161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.6
- Alianza AtléticoDeportivo Garcilasopreliminary4429281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →