Peruvian Liga 1 · Friday, 23 October, MSK
Atlético Grau — Asociación Deportiva Tarma
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Atlético Grau are clear favourites: 53% against 20% for the opponent, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atlético Grau are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Atlético Grau 2 wins, Asociación Deportiva Tarma 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético Grau — Asociación Deportiva Tarma What is xG? | 1.5–0.8 | |
| Atlético Grau not to lose | 80% | |
| Asociación Deportiva Tarma not to lose | 47% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 44% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 56% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atlético Grau
- Atlético Grau goals
- Asociación Deportiva Tarma goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 08.10Los Chankas0:0
- 19.09away · Sporting Cristal1:3
- 13.09Alianza Atlético3:1
- 06.09away · Deportivo Garcilaso2:4
- 01.09FBC Melgar1:0
- 10.10FC Cajamarca0:0
- 23.09Cienciano2:1
- 19.09away · Alianza Lima0:2
- 07.09away · FBC Melgar0:3
- 30.08Sport Huancayo1:3
Head to head
- 02.05.2026Asociación Deportiva Tarma — Atlético Grau1:0
- 31.08.2025Atlético Grau — Asociación Deportiva Tarma2:0
- 15.02.2025Asociación Deportiva Tarma — Atlético Grau4:3
- 04.08.2024Asociación Deportiva Tarma — Atlético Grau1:2
- 25.02.2024Atlético Grau — Asociación Deportiva Tarma2:2
Peruvian Liga 1 on the same day
- CD UT CajamarcaFBC Melgarpreliminary1825582The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →