Brazilian Serie A, round 31 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Atlético-MG — Coritiba
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Atlético-MG are clear favourites: 66% against 13% for the opponent, draw 21%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atlético-MG are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético-MG — Coritiba What is xG? | 2.0–0.8 | |
| Atlético-MG not to lose | 87% | |
| Coritiba not to lose | 34% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atlético-MG
- Atlético-MG goals
- Coritiba goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Santos2:1
- 09.10away · Athletico Paranaense2:2
- 04.10RB Bragantino1:0
- 19.09Chapecoense1:1
- 17.09Santos4:2
- 12.10Botafogo1:1
- 09.10away · Fluminense0:4
- 20.09away · Vasco da Gama0:5
- 12.09Athletico Paranaense3:3
- 06.09Mirassol1:2
Head to head
- 19.04.2026Coritiba — Atlético-MG2:0
- 09.10.2023Atlético-MG — Coritiba1:2
- 21.05.2023Coritiba — Atlético-MG1:2
- 14.08.2022Coritiba — Atlético-MG0:1
- 24.04.2022Atlético-MG — Coritiba2:2
Table
Brasileirao on the same day
- 7019111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- 3729341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- 4528261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- 5625191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- 3129402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →