Brazilian Serie A, round 31 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
São Paulo — Vasco da Gama
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
São Paulo are slightly stronger: 45% against 26%, draw 28%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings São Paulo are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: São Paulo — Vasco da Gama What is xG? | 1.4–1.1 | |
| São Paulo not to lose | 74% | |
| Vasco da Gama not to lose | 55% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap São Paulo
- São Paulo goals
- Vasco da Gama goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Vitória2:1
- 08.10away · Cruzeiro0:2
- 03.10Santos1:2
- 20.09Internacional1:0
- 16.09Boca Juniors1:1
- 14.10away · Boca Juniors1:0
- 11.10Remo0:0
- 08.10away · Botafogo2:1
- 20.09Coritiba5:0
- 16.09Santa Fe2:0
Head to head
- 19.04.2026Vasco da Gama — São Paulo2:1
- 03.11.2025Vasco da Gama — São Paulo0:2
- 13.06.2025São Paulo — Vasco da Gama1:3
- 17.10.2024São Paulo — Vasco da Gama3:0
- 23.06.2024Vasco da Gama — São Paulo4:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9, Copa Sudamericana | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | +3 | 40 |
| 10, Copa Sudamericana | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 0 | 39 |
| 11, Copa Sudamericana | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | -10 | 39 |
| 13 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | -11 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | -10 | 33 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- 7019111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- 6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 3729341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- 5625191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- 3129402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →