Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Friday, 23 October, MSK
Atlético Nacional — Deportivo Pasto
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Atlético Nacional are clear favourites: 68% against 11% for the opponent, draw 21%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atlético Nacional are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Atlético Nacional — No. 4, 23 pts; Deportivo Pasto — No. 19, 9 pts. A gap of 14 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Atlético Nacional 4 wins, Deportivo Pasto 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético Nacional — Deportivo Pasto What is xG? | 1.9–0.7 | |
| Atlético Nacional not to lose | 89% | |
| Deportivo Pasto not to lose | 32% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atlético Nacional
- Atlético Nacional goals
- Deportivo Pasto goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10Tolima0:0
- 01.10Junior FC3:1
- 25.09Millonarios1:1
- 21.09away · Llaneros FC0:2
- 17.09away · Internacional de Bogotá3:2
- 04.10Fortaleza FC0:0
- 26.09away · Chicó FC0:3
- 20.09Once Caldas1:0
- 15.09away · América de Cali1:0
- 06.09away · Cúcuta2:2
Head to head
- 30.03.2026Deportivo Pasto — Atlético Nacional1:2
- 18.10.2025Deportivo Pasto — Atlético Nacional2:2
- 30.04.2025Atlético Nacional — Deportivo Pasto3:0
- 06.12.2024Atlético Nacional — Deportivo Pasto2:1
- 24.11.2024Deportivo Pasto — Atlético Nacional0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Semi-final groups | Bucaramanga | 12 | 6 | +10 | 24 |
| 4, Semi-final groups | Atlético Nacional | 11 | 7 | +11 | 23 |
| 5, Semi-final groups | Independiente Medellín | 13 | 7 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 | CD Jaguares | 12 | 2 | -8 | 10 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | -9 | 9 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 12 | 1 | -10 | 9 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →