Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Estadio Metropolitano de Itagüí
Atlético Nacional — Tolima
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In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Atlético Nacional to win (55%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 55% fails in about 45 matches out of 100 on average.
Atlético Nacional are clear favourites: 55% against 19% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atlético Nacional are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Tolima: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Atlético Nacional 3 wins, Tolima 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético Nacional — Tolima What is xG? | 1.6–0.9 | |
| Atlético Nacional not to lose | 81% | |
| Tolima not to lose | 45% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atlético Nacional
- Atlético Nacional goals
- Tolima goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 01.10Junior FC3:1
- 25.09Millonarios1:1
- 21.09away · Llaneros FC0:2
- 17.09away · Internacional de Bogotá3:2
- 14.09Águilas Doradas2:0
- 04.10Chicó FC0:0
- 28.09away · Fortaleza FC2:2
- 21.09América de Cali1:1
- 17.09away · Once Caldas0:1
- 12.09away · Santa Fe0:1
Head to head
- 24.05.2026Atlético Nacional — Tolima3:1
- 17.05.2026Tolima — Atlético Nacional0:1
- 02.03.2026Tolima — Atlético Nacional1:0
- 03.08.2025Tolima — Atlético Nacional0:0
- 20.03.2025Atlético Nacional — Tolima4:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Semi-final groups | Bucaramanga | 12 | 6 | +10 | 24 |
| 4, Semi-final groups | Atlético Nacional | 11 | 7 | +11 | 23 |
| 5, Semi-final groups | Independiente Medellín | 13 | 7 | +4 | 23 |
| 7, Semi-final groups | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | +7 | 22 |
| 8, Semi-final groups | Tolima | 14 | 5 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 | Cúcuta | 13 | 5 | -3 | 18 |
Next matches
- CD JaguaresTolima12 October · Colombian Primera A2228512The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 1:2.2.4
- Chicó FCAtlético Nacional17 October · Colombian Primera A1726572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.4
Colombian Primera A on the same day
- 2730432The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →