A-League Men (Australia), round 1 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Auckland FC — Melbourne City FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Auckland FC are slightly stronger: 43% against 29%, draw 29%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Auckland FC 2 wins, Melbourne City FC 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Auckland FC — Melbourne City FC What is xG? | 1.5–1.3 | |
| Auckland FC not to lose | 71% | |
| Melbourne City FC not to lose | 57% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Auckland FC
- Auckland FC goals
- Melbourne City FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 23.05Sydney FC1:0
- 15.05away · Adelaide United3:0
- 09.05Adelaide United1:1
- 02.05Melbourne City FC1:1
- 26.04away · Sydney FC2:2
- 02.05away · Auckland FC1:1
- 26.04Adelaide United1:2
- 18.04away · Brisbane Roar FC3:2
- 12.04Wellington Phoenix2:0
- 07.04Central Coast Mariners2:1
Head to head
- 02.05.2026Auckland FC — Melbourne City FC1:1
- 28.02.2026Auckland FC — Melbourne City FC3:0
- 16.01.2026Melbourne City FC — Auckland FC2:1
- 18.01.2025Auckland FC — Melbourne City FC3:0
- 15.12.2024Melbourne City FC — Auckland FC2:2
A-League on the same day
- 4926251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- 2626482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →