La Liga, round 10 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Barcelona — Real Madrid
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Barcelona are clear favourites: 63% against 15% for the opponent, draw 22%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.7 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 72%, both teams to score — 70%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Barcelona are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Barcelona — Real Madrid What is xG? | 2.4–1.3 | |
| Barcelona not to lose | 85% | |
| Real Madrid not to lose | 37% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 30% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 72% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 28% |
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Form
- 13.10away · Galatasaray4:1
- 10.10Getafe3:0
- 19.09away · Sevilla3:1
- 16.09Racing Santander7:2
- 13.09away · Levante4:2
- 10.10Villarreal1:0
- 20.09away · Atlético Madrid1:2
- 15.09away · Elche3:2
- 12.09Rayo Vallecano4:1
- 08.09Inter2:1
Head to head
- 10.05.2026Barcelona — Real Madrid2:0
- 26.10.2025Real Madrid — Barcelona2:1
- 11.05.2025Barcelona — Real Madrid4:3
- 26.04.2025Barcelona — Real Madrid3:2
- 26.10.2024Real Madrid — Barcelona0:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | +27 | 24 |
| 2, Champions League | Atlético Madrid | 8 | 6 | +10 | 19 |
| 3, Champions League | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | +5 | 19 |
| 4, Champions League | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
La Liga on the same day
- Athletic ClubGetafepreliminary6025151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.0
- Celta VigoReal Betispreliminary4327301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- Real SociedadLevantepreliminary5027231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →