Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 8 · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Estádio Municipal de Braga
Braga — Sporting CP
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:3Came true
In short
Final score 1:3: the model's most likely outcome, Sporting CP to win (46%), came true.
Sporting CP are clear favourites: 46% against 25% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sporting CP are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Braga — Sporting CP What is xG? | 1.1–1.5 | |
| Braga not to lose | 54% | |
| Sporting CP not to lose | 75% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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Form
- 20.09away · Santa Clara0:0
- 14.09Estoril1:0
- 10.09away · Estrela da Amadora1:2
- 05.09away · Alverca2:1
- 31.08Vitória de Guimarães1:0
- 19.09Arouca2:2
- 13.09away · Famalicão1:1
- 09.09Galatasaray3:1
- 05.09Nacional2:0
- 28.08away · Rio Ave4:0
Head to head
- 07.03.2026Braga — Sporting CP2:2
- 05.10.2025Sporting CP — Braga1:1
- 07.04.2025Sporting CP — Braga1:1
- 10.11.2024Braga — Sporting CP2:4
- 11.02.2024Sporting CP — Braga5:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Champions League | Benfica | 8 | 6 | +17 | 19 |
| 3, Champions League qualifying | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | +11 | 18 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 | Braga | 7 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela da Amadora | 8 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
Next matches
- LensSporting CP13 October · Champions League4226321The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- FC KøbenhavnBraga15 October · Conference League4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
Primeira Liga on the same day
- 2533422The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →