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Ligue 1, round 6 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Stade Francis-Le Blé

Brest — Angers

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Model prediction and result

5:1Came true
Brest54%
Draw25%
Angers21%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 5:1: the model's most likely outcome, Brest to win (54%), came true.

Brest are clear favourites: 54% against 21% for the opponent, draw 25%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Brest are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Brest — Angers What is xG?1.6–0.9
Brest not to lose79%
Angers not to lose46%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes49%
Both teams to score: no51%
Total over 2.547%
Total under 2.553%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Brest
  • Brest goals
  • Angers goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Brest

  • 20.09away · Auxerre1:2
  • 13.09Paris Saint-Germain0:1
  • 05.09away · Le Havre2:1
  • 29.08Toulouse2:2
  • 22.08away · Le Mans2:2

Angers

  • 19.09Troyes2:0
  • 12.09away · Le Havre0:0
  • 06.09Rennes1:2
  • 29.08away · Auxerre3:1
  • 23.08Lille0:2

Head to head

  • 17.05.2026Brest — Angers1:1
  • 28.09.2025Angers — Brest0:2
  • 09.03.2025Brest — Angers2:0
  • 05.01.2025Angers — Brest2:0
  • 06.01.2024Brest — Angers1:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
6, Europa League or Conference LeagueParis Saint-Germain632111–8+311
7Brest622212–9+38
8Lorient62226–608
11Strasbourg621311–12-17
12Angers62137–10-37
13Marseille62049–8+16

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • LilleBrest17 October · Ligue 1
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
  • AngersMarseille18 October · Ligue 1
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9

Ligue 1 on the same day

  • LilleLe Havre
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
  • LorientParis FC
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.6
  • MonacoToulouse
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 2:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
  • Paris Saint-GermainLe Mans
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →