Ligue 1, round 6 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat
Lorient — Paris FC
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1:0Missed
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Paris FC to win (41%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 41% fails in about 59 matches out of 100 on average.
Paris FC are slightly stronger: 41% against 32%, draw 26%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lorient — Paris FC What is xG? | 1.2–1.4 | |
| Lorient not to lose | 59% | |
| Paris FC not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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Form
Head to head
- 05.04.2026Lorient — Paris FC1:1
- 04.02.2026Lorient — Paris FC2:0
- 03.10.2025Paris FC — Lorient2:0
- 08.03.2025Paris FC — Lorient3:2
- 14.12.2024Lorient — Paris FC2:0
Table
Next matches
- LorientMonaco18 October · Ligue 12826462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- Paris FCRennes18 October · Ligue 13827351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
Ligue 1 on the same day
- 6621131The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
- 5425211The most likely outcome came true: 15:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.5
- 5724191The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 791381The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →