Peruvian Liga 1 · Friday, 23 October, MSK
CD UT Cajamarca — FBC Melgar
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
FBC Melgar are clear favourites: 58% against 18% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FBC Melgar are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- CD UT Cajamarca: 5 defeats in a row; FBC Melgar: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: CD UT Cajamarca 0 wins, FBC Melgar 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: CD UT Cajamarca — FBC Melgar What is xG? | 1.0–1.8 | |
| CD UT Cajamarca not to lose | 42% | |
| FBC Melgar not to lose | 82% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap CD UT Cajamarca
- CD UT Cajamarca goals
- FBC Melgar goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Sporting Cristal0:1
- 20.09away · Sport Huancayo2:3
- 11.09ADC Juan Pablo II1:2
- 04.09away · Alianza Atlético2:3
- 29.08Universitario de Deportes2:4
- 11.10away · Universitario de Deportes2:2
- 20.09Sport Boys1:1
- 12.09away · Cusco FC1:0
- 07.09Asociación Deportiva Tarma3:0
- 01.09away · Atlético Grau0:1
Head to head
- 04.05.2026FBC Melgar — CD UT Cajamarca2:0
- 19.07.2025CD UT Cajamarca — FBC Melgar1:2
- 08.02.2025FBC Melgar — CD UT Cajamarca3:0
- 23.10.2024FBC Melgar — CD UT Cajamarca1:0
- 12.05.2024CD UT Cajamarca — FBC Melgar2:6
Peruvian Liga 1 on the same day
- Atlético GrauAsociación Deportiva Tarmapreliminary5327201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →