Peruvian Liga 1 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estadio Héroes de San Ramón
CD UT Cajamarca — Sporting Cristal
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
0:1Came true
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Sporting Cristal to win (55%), came true.
Sporting Cristal are clear favourites: 55% against 21% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sporting Cristal are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: CD UT Cajamarca — Sporting Cristal What is xG? | 1.2–2.0 | |
| CD UT Cajamarca not to lose | 45% | |
| Sporting Cristal not to lose | 79% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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Form
- 20.09away · Sport Huancayo2:3
- 11.09ADC Juan Pablo II1:2
- 04.09away · Alianza Atlético2:3
- 29.08Universitario de Deportes2:4
- 22.08Comerciantes Unidos1:3
- 19.09Atlético Grau3:1
- 13.09away · Club Deportivo Moquegua2:1
- 06.09Los Chankas5:0
- 30.08away · Sport Boys0:1
- 21.08away · Alianza Atlético1:3
Head to head
- 19.04.2026Sporting Cristal — CD UT Cajamarca3:2
- 23.08.2025Sporting Cristal — CD UT Cajamarca2:2
- 06.04.2025CD UT Cajamarca — Sporting Cristal4:1
- 25.08.2024Sporting Cristal — CD UT Cajamarca4:0
- 31.03.2024CD UT Cajamarca — Sporting Cristal1:2
Next matches
- Sporting CristalComerciantes Unidos18 October · Peruvian Liga 17317101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- CiencianoCD UT Cajamarca19 October · Peruvian Liga 1761591The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.4
Peruvian Liga 1 on the same day
- 5425211The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- 4130291The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →