Uruguayan Primera Division, round 11 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Cerro — Cerro Largo
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Evenly matched: Cerro 37%, Cerro Largo 31%, draw 32%.
2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Cerro Largo: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Cerro 1 win, Cerro Largo 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cerro — Cerro Largo What is xG? | 1.1–1.0 | |
| Cerro not to lose | 69% | |
| Cerro Largo not to lose | 63% | |
| No draw | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 36% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 64% |
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- Handicap Cerro
- Cerro goals
- Cerro Largo goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 10.10away · Defensor Sporting3:2
- 04.10Montevideo Wanderers0:2
- 27.09away · Juventud de las Piedras0:0
- 19.09Club Atletico Peñarol1:2
- 13.09away · Club Atlético Progreso3:1
- 11.10Albion0:1
- 04.10away · Danubio1:2
- 26.09Nacional (URU)0:2
- 20.09away · Deportivo Maldonado0:2
- 13.09Central Español0:0
Head to head
- 30.05.2026Cerro Largo — Cerro2:0
- 11.04.2026Cerro Largo — Cerro1:1
- 07.09.2025Cerro — Cerro Largo0:1
- 19.06.2025Cerro — Cerro Largo2:1
- 18.03.2025Cerro Largo — Cerro0:0
Uruguayan Primera on the same day
- 2830422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.3
- 5028221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1
- 4529271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →