Major League Soccer (MLS), round 9 · Wednesday, 7 October, MSK · Soldier Field
Chicago Fire FC — Vancouver Whitecaps
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In short
Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Vancouver Whitecaps to win (44%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 44% fails in about 56 matches out of 100 on average.
Vancouver Whitecaps are slightly stronger: 44% against 28%, draw 28%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Vancouver Whitecaps are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Chicago Fire FC — Vancouver Whitecaps What is xG? | 1.4–1.7 | |
| Chicago Fire FC not to lose | 56% | |
| Vancouver Whitecaps not to lose | 72% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Chicago Fire FC
- Chicago Fire FC goals
- Vancouver Whitecaps goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 27.09away · Charlotte FC1:0
- 20.09away · Nashville SC0:3
- 14.09New England Revolution1:2
- 10.09Inter Miami CF1:1
- 06.09away · Toronto FC4:4
- 27.09DC United3:3
- 20.09away · Real Salt Lake3:0
- 14.09Austin FC1:2
- 10.09LA Galaxy3:0
- 06.09St. Louis City1:3
Head to head
- 23.03.2025Vancouver Whitecaps — Chicago Fire FC1:3
- 31.08.2023Chicago Fire FC — Vancouver Whitecaps0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | +37 | 63 |
| 2, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | +31 | 51 |
| 3, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | +16 | 50 |
| 4, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Inter Miami CF | 28 | 13 | +18 | 49 |
| 5, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Chicago Fire FC | 28 | 14 | +11 | 48 |
| 6, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | +7 | 47 |
Next matches
- Chicago Fire FCNew York City FC10 October · MLS5126231The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.0
- Los Angeles FCVancouver Whitecaps11 October · MLS352836XThe most likely outcome came true: X1:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:2.3.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →