Major League Soccer (MLS), round 28 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · BMO Stadium
Los Angeles FC — Vancouver Whitecaps
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1:1Came true
In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (28%), came true.
Evenly matched: Los Angeles FC 35%, Vancouver Whitecaps 36%, draw 28%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Vancouver Whitecaps are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Los Angeles FC 1 win, Vancouver Whitecaps 1, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Los Angeles FC — Vancouver Whitecaps What is xG? | 1.5–1.5 | |
| Los Angeles FC not to lose | 64% | |
| Vancouver Whitecaps not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Los Angeles FC
- Los Angeles FC goals
- Vancouver Whitecaps goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 27.09away · FC Dallas0:1
- 20.09away · San Jose Earthquakes2:2
- 13.09away · Sporting Kansas City1:3
- 10.09Red Bull New York2:0
- 06.09away · Real Salt Lake2:2
- 07.10away · Chicago Fire FC1:3
- 27.09DC United3:3
- 20.09away · Real Salt Lake3:0
- 14.09Austin FC1:2
- 10.09LA Galaxy3:0
Head to head
- 02.08.2026Vancouver Whitecaps — Los Angeles FC1:1
- 23.11.2025Vancouver Whitecaps — Los Angeles FC2:2
- 30.06.2025Los Angeles FC — Vancouver Whitecaps0:1
- 12.05.2025Vancouver Whitecaps — Los Angeles FC2:2
- 09.11.2024Los Angeles FC — Vancouver Whitecaps1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | +37 | 63 |
| 2, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | +31 | 51 |
| 3, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | +16 | 50 |
| 10, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Houston Dynamo FC | 28 | 13 | +2 | 45 |
| 11, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | +13 | 42 |
| 12, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | +11 | 42 |
Next matches
- St. Louis CityVancouver Whitecaps15 October · MLS3729341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.4
- Los Angeles FCAustin FC15 October · MLS6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
MLS on the same day
- 4326301The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 2:1.3.4
- 4428281The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 5723201The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:0.3.7
- 4028311The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
- 3827351The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.5
- 3728351The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
- 6620141The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.5
- 2327502The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →