Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Chicó FC — Atlético Nacional
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Atlético Nacional are clear favourites: 57% against 17% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atlético Nacional are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Chicó FC — No. 14, 12 pts; Atlético Nacional — No. 4, 23 pts. A gap of 11 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Chicó FC 1 win, Atlético Nacional 3, 1 draw.
- Days of rest before the match: Chicó FC 5, Atlético Nacional 8.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Chicó FC — Atlético Nacional What is xG? | 0.8–1.6 | |
| Chicó FC not to lose | 43% | |
| Atlético Nacional not to lose | 83% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Chicó FC
- Chicó FC goals
- Atlético Nacional goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10Cúcuta0:1
- 04.10away · Tolima0:0
- 26.09Deportivo Pasto3:0
- 19.09away · Millonarios0:3
- 16.09Alianza FC1:2
- 09.10Tolima0:0
- 01.10Junior FC3:1
- 25.09Millonarios1:1
- 21.09away · Llaneros FC0:2
- 17.09away · Internacional de Bogotá3:2
Head to head
- 18.01.2026Atlético Nacional — Chicó FC4:0
- 06.10.2025Chicó FC — Atlético Nacional1:1
- 17.04.2025Atlético Nacional — Chicó FC4:1
- 29.09.2024Atlético Nacional — Chicó FC6:2
- 17.03.2024Chicó FC — Atlético Nacional2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Semi-final groups | Bucaramanga | 12 | 6 | +10 | 24 |
| 4, Semi-final groups | Atlético Nacional | 11 | 7 | +11 | 23 |
| 5, Semi-final groups | Independiente Medellín | 13 | 7 | +4 | 23 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogotá | 14 | 2 | -4 | 14 |
| 14 | Chicó FC | 12 | 3 | -9 | 12 |
| 15 | Alianza FC | 13 | 3 | -12 | 12 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →