Peruvian Liga 1 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Club Deportivo Moquegua — Alianza Lima
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Alianza Lima are clear favourites: 56% against 17% for the opponent, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 42%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Alianza Lima are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Club Deportivo Moquegua: 5 defeats in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Club Deportivo Moquegua — Alianza Lima What is xG? | 0.7–1.5 | |
| Club Deportivo Moquegua not to lose | 44% | |
| Alianza Lima not to lose | 83% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 58% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Club Deportivo Moquegua
- Club Deportivo Moquegua goals
- Alianza Lima goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 08.10Cienciano0:2
- 20.09away · ADC Juan Pablo II0:4
- 13.09Sporting Cristal1:2
- 06.09away · Cusco FC0:2
- 30.08Alianza Atlético1:4
- 12.10away · Cusco FC2:1
- 19.09Asociación Deportiva Tarma2:0
- 13.09Universitario de Deportes1:2
- 06.09away · ADC Juan Pablo II1:1
- 30.08Deportivo Garcilaso0:1
Head to head
- 03.05.2026Alianza Lima — Club Deportivo Moquegua2:1
Peruvian Liga 1 on the same day
- Universitario de DeportesADC Juan Pablo IIpreliminary761591The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
- Comerciantes UnidosCiencianopreliminary3728351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Sport BoysFC Cajamarcapreliminary5026241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →