English Premier League, round 6 · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Coventry Building Society Arena
Coventry City — Newcastle United
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, Newcastle United to win (50%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 50% fails in about 50 matches out of 100 on average.
Newcastle United are clear favourites: 50% against 22% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Newcastle United are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Coventry City — Newcastle United What is xG? | 1.1–1.7 | |
| Coventry City not to lose | 50% | |
| Newcastle United not to lose | 78% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Coventry City
- Coventry City goals
- Newcastle United goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 19.09away · Nottingham Forest1:0
- 16.09Aston Villa1:3
- 13.09Brighton & Hove Albion0:5
- 05.09away · Manchester City0:1
- 29.08Hull City0:1
- 19.09Hull City2:1
- 14.09away · Leeds United1:4
- 08.09away · Millwall1:0
- 05.09AFC Bournemouth2:2
- 29.08away · Tottenham Hotspur2:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 6 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry City | 6 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | -3 | 5 |
Next matches
- Newcastle UnitedAston Villa17 October · Premier League4727261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- Tottenham HotspurCoventry City19 October · Premier League5425201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →