English Premier League, round 8 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Crystal Palace — Newcastle United
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Crystal Palace 32%, Newcastle United 38%, draw 30%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Crystal Palace — No. 12, 7 pts; Newcastle United — No. 11, 8 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Last 5 meetings: Crystal Palace 2 wins, Newcastle United 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Crystal Palace — Newcastle United What is xG? | 1.5–1.6 | |
| Crystal Palace not to lose | 62% | |
| Newcastle United not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace goals
- Newcastle United goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Nottingham Forest3:1
- 20.09away · Leeds United0:0
- 17.09Lech Poznań4:0
- 12.09Ipswich Town2:3
- 08.09Middlesbrough3:0
- 12.10away · Coventry City1:4
- 19.09Hull City2:1
- 14.09away · Leeds United1:4
- 08.09away · Millwall1:0
- 05.09AFC Bournemouth2:2
Head to head
- 12.04.2026Crystal Palace — Newcastle United2:1
- 04.01.2026Newcastle United — Crystal Palace2:0
- 16.04.2025Newcastle United — Crystal Palace5:0
- 30.11.2024Crystal Palace — Newcastle United1:1
- 24.04.2024Crystal Palace — Newcastle United2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 6 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
Premier League on the same day
- Hull CityBrentfordpreliminary1729552The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- LiverpoolBrighton & Hove Albionpreliminary5325221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- Manchester UnitedAFC Bournemouthpreliminary5326201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
- SunderlandLeeds Unitedpreliminary3030392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →