Uruguayan Primera Division, round 10 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK
Defensor Sporting — Cerro
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In short
Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, Defensor Sporting to win (50%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 50% fails in about 50 matches out of 100 on average.
Defensor Sporting are clear favourites: 50% against 22% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 34%, both teams to score — 40%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Defensor Sporting are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Defensor Sporting — Cerro What is xG? | 1.3–0.8 | |
| Defensor Sporting not to lose | 78% | |
| Cerro not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 40% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 60% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 34% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 66% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Defensor Sporting
- Defensor Sporting goals
- Cerro goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 03.10away · Albion2:3
- 28.09Danubio1:0
- 20.09away · Nacional (URU)2:3
- 13.09Deportivo Maldonado1:0
- 06.09away · Central Español1:1
- 04.10Montevideo Wanderers0:2
- 27.09away · Juventud de las Piedras0:0
- 19.09Club Atletico Peñarol1:2
- 13.09away · Club Atlético Progreso3:1
- 06.09Racing1:0
Head to head
- 04.08.2026Defensor Sporting — Cerro2:1
- 05.04.2026Cerro — Defensor Sporting1:0
- 12.10.2025Cerro — Defensor Sporting1:0
- 23.06.2025Defensor Sporting — Cerro2:1
- 15.04.2025Defensor Sporting — Cerro3:2
Next matches
- CerroCerro Largo17 October · Uruguayan Primera373231XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.0
- Boston RiverDefensor Sporting17 October · Uruguayan Primera4529261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
Uruguayan Primera on the same day
- 4230281The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 4330281The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 2:0.2.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →