Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Estadio Jocay
Delfín — Mushuc Runa
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:2Missed
In short
Final score 3:2: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (31%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 31% fails in about 69 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: Delfín 36%, Mushuc Runa 33%, draw 31%.
The model expects few goals: 2.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 31%, both teams to score — 40%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Delfín — Mushuc Runa What is xG? | 1.0–1.0 | |
| Delfín not to lose | 67% | |
| Mushuc Runa not to lose | 64% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 40% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 60% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 31% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 69% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Delfín
- Delfín goals
- Mushuc Runa goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 20.09away · Técnico Universitario1:1
- 14.09away · Barcelona SC1:1
- 07.09Universidad Católica (ECU)0:1
- 02.09Técnico Universitario1:0
- 28.08away · Mushuc Runa0:1
- 21.09away · Deportivo Cuenca1:1
- 13.09away · Guayaquil City1:3
- 08.09Leones del Norte1:1
- 02.09away · LDU de Quito0:0
- 28.08Delfín1:0
Head to head
- 28.08.2026Mushuc Runa — Delfín1:0
- 03.05.2026Delfín — Mushuc Runa1:0
- 16.06.2025Delfín — Mushuc Runa3:1
- 18.02.2025Mushuc Runa — Delfín2:0
- 08.11.2024Delfín — Mushuc Runa4:2
Next matches
- DelfínManta18 October · LigaPro Serie A4730231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.9
- Mushuc RunaOrense19 October · LigaPro Serie A4827251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
LigaPro Serie A on the same day
- 4929221The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →