La Liga, round 11 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Elche — Valencia
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Elche 36%, Valencia 33%, draw 31%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Valencia are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Elche — Valencia What is xG? | 1.3–1.2 | |
| Elche not to lose | 67% | |
| Valencia not to lose | 64% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Elche
- Elche goals
- Valencia goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Celta Vigo0:0
- 18.09away · Espanyol3:1
- 15.09Real Madrid2:3
- 12.09away · Athletic Club1:1
- 07.09Real Sociedad2:3
- 11.10away · Racing Santander2:2
- 20.09Real Sociedad2:3
- 15.09away · Deportivo Alavés1:0
- 11.09away · Sevilla0:1
- 06.09Barcelona0:5
Head to head
- 11.04.2026Elche — Valencia1:0
- 10.01.2026Valencia — Elche1:1
- 23.04.2023Elche — Valencia0:2
- 15.10.2022Valencia — Elche2:2
- 19.03.2022Elche — Valencia0:1
Table
La Liga on the same day
- GetafeSevillapreliminary4131281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.0
- Racing SantanderReal Madridpreliminary1318682The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.9
- Athletic ClubReal Sociedadpreliminary5525201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →