Swedish Allsvenskan, round 27 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK

Elfsborg — Örgryte

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Model prediction for 1 November

Elfsborg67%
Draw20%
Örgryte13%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Elfsborg are clear favourites: 67% against 13% for the opponent, draw 20%.

3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).

Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Elfsborg are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Elfsborg — Örgryte What is xG?2.2–1.0
Elfsborg not to lose87%
Örgryte not to lose33%
No draw80%
Both teams to score: yes57%
Both teams to score: no43%
Total over 2.562%
Total under 2.538%

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Form

Elfsborg

  • 12.10Halmstads BK4:0
  • 20.09away · Djurgården2:1
  • 13.09Kalmar FF1:0
  • 06.09away · Brommapojkarna1:2
  • 29.08Degerfors2:0

Örgryte

  • 11.10away · Häcken0:3
  • 19.09Sirius1:2
  • 13.09away · Malmö FF1:4
  • 06.09Hammarby1:1
  • 30.08away · IFK Göteborg0:1

Head to head

  • 29.05.2026Örgryte — Elfsborg2:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
3, Europa League or Conference LeagueHammarby23134649–21+2843
4Elfsborg23117535–22+1340
5Häcken23109442–30+1239
14, Relegation play-offKalmar FF23541421–37-1619
15, RelegationÖrgryte23361425–52-2715
16, RelegationHalmstads BK23351516–44-2814

Season 2026

Full table

Allsvenskan on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →