Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Emelec — Leones del Norte
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Emelec are slightly stronger: 40% against 29%, draw 31%.
2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 45%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Emelec: 3 defeats in a row; Leones del Norte: winless in 4.
- Last 2 meetings: Emelec 1 win, Leones del Norte 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Emelec — Leones del Norte What is xG? | 1.2–1.0 | |
| Emelec not to lose | 71% | |
| Leones del Norte not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 37% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 63% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Emelec
- Emelec goals
- Leones del Norte goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Guayaquil City2:3
- 20.09Libertad (ECU)1:2
- 13.09away · CSD Macará0:1
- 08.09Manta1:0
- 04.09away · Libertad (ECU)1:1
- 09.10away · Libertad (ECU)0:3
- 20.09away · Guayaquil City1:1
- 13.09Técnico Universitario0:1
- 08.09away · Mushuc Runa1:1
- 04.09Orense1:0
Head to head
- 31.08.2026Emelec — Leones del Norte2:1
- 04.05.2026Leones del Norte — Emelec2:0
LigaPro Serie A on the same day
- Universidad Católica (ECU)Aucaspreliminary5625191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- Independiente del ValleLDU de Quitopreliminary6123161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- CSD MacaráBarcelona SCpreliminary4629241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
- Guayaquil CityLibertad (ECU)preliminary3729341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- DelfínDeportivo Cuencapreliminary383230XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.0
- OrenseTécnico Universitariopreliminary5426201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- Mushuc RunaMantapreliminary5725181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →