English Premier League, round 7 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Everton — Chelsea
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Evenly matched: Everton 33%, Chelsea 37%, draw 30%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Everton — Chelsea What is xG? | 1.4–1.5 | |
| Everton not to lose | 63% | |
| Chelsea not to lose | 67% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Everton
- Everton goals
- Chelsea goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 11.10away · Hull City2:2
- 19.09Ipswich Town1:0
- 16.09Wolverhampton Wanderers1:0
- 12.09away · Tottenham Hotspur0:0
- 06.09Manchester United2:2
- 10.10AFC Bournemouth5:1
- 18.09away · Brentford0:3
- 12.09Hull City2:2
- 09.09Leeds United6:3
- 06.09away · Arsenal1:2
Head to head
- 21.03.2026Everton — Chelsea3:0
- 13.12.2025Chelsea — Everton2:0
- 26.04.2025Chelsea — Everton1:0
- 22.12.2024Everton — Chelsea0:0
- 15.04.2024Chelsea — Everton6:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Champions League | Brentford | 6 | 2 | +6 | 10 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Everton | 6 | 2 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 6 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
Premier League on the same day
- 352935XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:13.1
- 5326211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- 831251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.6
- 4727261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →