Ukrainian Premier League, round 9 · Monday, 19 October, 13:00 MSK

FC Kharkiv — Liviy Bereh

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Model prediction for 19 October

FC Kharkiv64%

Draw25%

Liviy Bereh11%

Model estimate at 20:38 MSK

In short

FC Kharkiv are clear favourites: 64% against 11% for the opponent, draw 25%.

The model expects few goals: 2.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.

Over 2.5 goals — 35%, both teams to score — 32%.

Why

By the strength ratings FC Kharkiv are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.

Facts

League table: FC Kharkiv — No. 4, 15 pts; Liviy Bereh — No. 12, 7 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
FC Kharkiv: 4 wins in a row.
Days of rest before the match: FC Kharkiv 9, Liviy Bereh 7.

Probabilities

Expected goals: FC Kharkiv — Liviy Bereh What is xG?		1.5–0.5
FC Kharkiv not to lose		89%
Liviy Bereh not to lose		36%
No draw		75%
Both teams to score: yes		32%
Both teams to score: no		68%
Total over 2.5		35%
Total under 2.5		65%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap FC Kharkiv
FC Kharkiv goals
Liviy Bereh goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

FC Kharkiv

10.10away · Chornomorets Odesa2:1
19.09Bukovyna Chernivtsi2:0
05.09Obolon Kyiv5:0
31.08away · Zorya3:0
16.08Shakhtar Donetsk0:1

Liviy Bereh

12.10Zorya1:3
19.09away · Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi2:0
13.09away · Polissya Zhytomyr0:1
04.09away · Chornomorets Odesa0:0
29.08Karpaty1:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
3, Europa League or Conference League	Dynamo Kyiv	7	5	1	1	10–5	+5	16
4	FC Kharkiv	7	5	0	2	14–5	+9	15
5	Karpaty	8	4	2	2	15–6	+9	14
11	Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi	8	2	2	4	7–10	-3	8
12	Liviy Bereh	7	1	4	2	5–6	-1	7
13, Relegation play-off	Kryvbas	6	1	2	3	7–10	-3	5

Season 2026/27

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →