Danish Superliga, round 10 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · MCH Arena
FC Midtjylland — FC København
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2:1Missed
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, FC København to win (38%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 38% fails in about 62 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: FC Midtjylland 33%, FC København 38%, draw 29%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Midtjylland — FC København What is xG? | 1.5–1.6 | |
| FC Midtjylland not to lose | 62% | |
| FC København not to lose | 67% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Midtjylland
- FC Midtjylland goals
- FC København goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 19.09away · OB1:1
- 14.09Brøndby IF4:1
- 07.09Nordsjælland2:2
- 02.09away · AGF2:0
- 30.08away · Silkeborg1:1
- 20.09away · Brøndby IF1:0
- 11.09AC Horsens2:0
- 06.09away · OB5:0
- 03.09Nordsjælland2:0
- 31.08Sønderjyske3:1
Head to head
- 08.02.2026FC Midtjylland — FC København2:1
- 05.10.2025FC København — FC Midtjylland1:1
- 11.05.2025FC København — FC Midtjylland1:1
- 17.04.2025FC Midtjylland — FC København4:2
- 23.02.2025FC København — FC Midtjylland1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Championship round | FC København | 10 | 8 | +14 | 24 |
| 2, Championship round | FC Midtjylland | 10 | 6 | +9 | 22 |
| 3, Championship round | Viborg | 10 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
Next matches
- EgnatiaFC Midtjylland15 October · Conference League2425512The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- FC KøbenhavnBraga15 October · Conference League4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
Danish Superliga on the same day
- 3329382The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.2.7
- 4229291The most likely outcome did not happen: 13:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
- 5626181The most likely outcome came true: 15:2Final score 5:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →