Russian Cup, round 5 · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK
FC Orenburg — Rodina
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 28 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
FC Orenburg are clear favourites: 52% against 24% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Orenburg are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Rodina: winless in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Orenburg — Rodina What is xG? | 1.7–1.1 | |
| FC Orenburg not to lose | 76% | |
| Rodina not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Orenburg
- FC Orenburg goals
- Rodina goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Dynamo Makhachkala4:0
- 17.09FC Krasnodar0:0
- 12.09away · Dinamo Moscow0:1
- 06.09Akron Togliatti2:2
- 02.09Rubin Kazan1:1
- 11.10away · CSKA Moscow0:3
- 16.09Rubin Kazan1:1
- 11.09away · Krylya Sovetov Samara1:2
- 06.09away · Dynamo Makhachkala0:2
- 02.09away · Spartak Moscow1:3
Head to head
- 18.08.2026Rodina — FC Orenburg1:4
Russian Cup on the same day
- FC RostovAkron Togliattipreliminary5325231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.8
- Spartak MoscowRubin Kazanpreliminary6720131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →