Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 10 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
FC Porto — Estoril
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
FC Porto are clear favourites: 84% against 4% for the opponent, draw 12%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Porto are about 1.8 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: FC Porto — No. 1, 24 pts; Estoril — No. 18, 2 pts. A gap of 22 pts.
- FC Porto: 3 wins in a row; Estoril: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: FC Porto 4 wins, Estoril 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Porto — Estoril What is xG? | 2.5–0.6 | |
| FC Porto not to lose | 96% | |
| Estoril not to lose | 16% | |
| No draw | 88% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Porto
- FC Porto goals
- Estoril goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 10.10away · Marítimo2:1
- 20.09Benfica3:1
- 12.09away · Casa Pia AC4:1
- 08.09Manchester City0:2
- 04.09Moreirense2:1
- 10.10away · Académico Viseu1:2
- 20.09Casa Pia AC1:2
- 14.09away · Braga0:1
- 07.09Arouca0:0
- 31.08away · Benfica1:2
Head to head
- 12.04.2026Estoril — FC Porto1:3
- 30.11.2025FC Porto — Estoril1:0
- 30.03.2025Estoril — FC Porto1:2
- 03.11.2024FC Porto — Estoril4:0
- 30.03.2024Estoril — FC Porto1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | +16 | 24 |
| 2, Champions League | Benfica | 8 | 6 | +17 | 19 |
| 17, Relegation | Casa Pia AC | 8 | 1 | -14 | 4 |
| 18, Relegation | Estoril | 8 | 0 | -8 | 2 |
Primeira Liga on the same day
- MoreirenseEstrela da Amadorapreliminary2831412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 84% will not happen in roughly 16 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →