Russian Premier League, round 10 · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Rostov Arena
FC Rostov — Akron Togliatti
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:0Came true
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, FC Rostov to win (51%), came true.
FC Rostov are clear favourites: 51% against 19% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Rostov are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Akron Togliatti: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: FC Rostov 3 wins, Akron Togliatti 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Rostov — Akron Togliatti What is xG? | 1.6–0.9 | |
| FC Rostov not to lose | 81% | |
| Akron Togliatti not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Rostov
- FC Rostov goals
- Akron Togliatti goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 17.09Dinamo Moscow0:3
- 13.09away · Spartak Moscow0:3
- 05.09Fakel3:1
- 01.09CSKA Moscow2:0
- 29.08away · FC Krasnodar0:1
- 17.09FK Akhmat2:0
- 13.09away · FC Krasnodar1:1
- 06.09away · FC Orenburg2:2
- 01.09Lokomotiv Moscow0:0
- 28.08CSKA Moscow2:2
Head to head
- 04.08.2026Akron Togliatti — FC Rostov0:4
- 11.05.2026Akron Togliatti — FC Rostov1:3
- 01.11.2025FC Rostov — Akron Togliatti0:1
- 31.03.2025Akron Togliatti — FC Rostov2:3
- 28.09.2024FC Rostov — Akron Togliatti0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FK Akhmat | 10 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | FC Rostov | 10 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 13, Relegation play-off | Lokomotiv Moscow | 10 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | Akron Togliatti | 10 | 1 | -8 | 8 |
| 15, Relegation | Rodina | 10 | 1 | -15 | 5 |
Next matches
- Lokomotiv MoscowAkron Togliatti13 October · Russian Cup5624201The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.9
- CSKA MoscowFC Rostov14 October · Russian Cup · live5025251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →