J1 League (Japan), round 12 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
FC Tokyo — Mito Hollyhock
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
FC Tokyo are clear favourites: 64% against 14% for the opponent, draw 22%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Tokyo are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Tokyo — Mito Hollyhock What is xG? | 1.9–0.8 | |
| FC Tokyo not to lose | 86% | |
| Mito Hollyhock not to lose | 36% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Tokyo
- FC Tokyo goals
- Mito Hollyhock goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Urawa Red Diamonds3:0
- 19.09Nagoya Grampus1:0
- 12.09away · Gamba Osaka2:0
- 06.09Kyoto Sanga FC2:0
- 02.09away · Shimizu S-Pulse1:1
- 11.10Shimizu S-Pulse1:2
- 19.09away · Yokohama F.Marinos0:2
- 12.09Kawasaki Frontale0:1
- 05.09away · Avispa Fukuoka1:1
- 02.09Kashima Antlers4:2
Head to head
- 24.04.2026FC Tokyo — Mito Hollyhock5:2
- 14.03.2026Mito Hollyhock — FC Tokyo1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | +12 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | +5 | 19 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 9 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
J1 League on the same day
- Nagoya GrampusYokohama F.Marinospreliminary4127321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Cerezo OsakaJEF United Chibapreliminary5425211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- Urawa Red DiamondsV-Varen Nagasakipreliminary5425211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Kawasaki FrontaleFagiano Okayama FCpreliminary4228301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →